And it's off to the races...

Tomorrow night is going to be interesting, but the results of the Michigan primary will not likely determine the outcome of the Republican nomination. The one exception might be if McCain trounces the rest of his opponents. After looking at the polls, I don't think that is going to happen. In fact, Mitt Romney may pull this off.

Michigan is a curious state when it comes to the Republican primary. It is the fourth state to choose delegates, and it tends to vote liberal. The reason the placement is important is because it can cement a candidates position if he, or she, has already won the first three states. But right now, three separate candidates have won three separate states. And while Michigan is big, it isn't big enough to sway the rest of the country.

On the surface, McCain has the best chance in this state. Michigan is a working class state with fairly liberal social leanings. McCain should mix with these people better than Romney. Just recently McCain has pulled a couple of points above Romney, so he definitely has the momentum. The problem is that we have already seen what can happen when another candidate is on the ropes and needs to energize his, or her, supporters.

While I think this race is going to be close between these two men, I expect Romney's supporters to come out in force and eek out a victory for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see McCain win though, and I think that the odds would be in his favor if Vegas had a line on this battle.

Huckabee should come in third again, and Ron Paul may come in a surprise fourth over Giuliani and Thompson. This would be a definite victory for him, but Giuliani is counting on the big states where he still has a lead to bring him back. Thompson will likely drop out of the race sometime soon. He doesn't have the money to stay in the race or the support. And while he showed some life in the last debate, I just don't think he has the will to keep up his campaign.

I will be watching closely to see who he throws his support behind. He will definitely not support the "liberal" Huckabee. I doubt he has much love for Rudy either. McCain and Romney have the best chance of earning his support, if he offers it to anyone. And if it really matters.