Sorry. Bad pun. Note to self. Headline writing days are over.
As I predicted, McCain failed to win in Michigan. And the polls are showing some definite problems. In fact, the results tonight show us something that probably should have been obvious by now. The Republican base doesn't like him, which makes life in a primary very hard.
McCain won big in New Hampshire, which is a state known for it's independent votes. He didn't need the Republican base there, but he did need it in Michigan, and those votes went to Romney tonight, with a fair amount going to Huckabee.
His votes came from three groups, or at least from people belonging to one or more of these three groups. People who don't like President Bush. People who are pro-choice. And people who are against the war. This is hardly the Republican base and exactly why he fares better among independents.
I am a bit puzzled by this last group seeing as McCain has been the biggest proponent of the surge and has said he will keep fighting the fight until satisfied it is over.
McCain works better as an independent or in a general election, but based on these results, he will have a hard time getting there.
If McCain ends up losing the nomination, I think the door is wide open for a Michael Bloomberg independent run. In fact, I would be shocked if his polling lets him enter under any other scenario. If this happened, I think McCain would make a very interesting running mate option.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Mitt's a hit
Mitt Romney won his home state and jumped early to his evening speech, cutting off John McCain. As I type, he is focusing on his outsider status, and he is going to try to ride this to victory.
I am a bit surprised at how much he is leading tonight, but the numbers are slightly skewed. It's important to remember that his dad was the governor of this state in the not too distant past. He's got history, and I think this worked more in his favor than his Washington outsider approach.
America wants change. There's no doubt about that, but I don't know if he is the right person to be focusing on change. Sure, it's the buzz word, but he is about as old school Republican as this race has to offer.
On a side note, Mitt referred to all three major Democrats tonight, and it appears he is staying away from annointing anyone there. This is a definite change in tone.
On another side note, Mitt just asked his audience three questions. Is Washington broken? Can it be fixed? And is this the team to do it? I would be squirming in my seat if I was part of his campaign. Candidates can't ask questions when they are on the stage, especially when pushing for big change. They need to be giving answers, and asking questions, even rhetorical ones gives of an unconscious message of doubt. That was a mistake, and he will need to stop that little trick if he wants to win.
I am a bit surprised at how much he is leading tonight, but the numbers are slightly skewed. It's important to remember that his dad was the governor of this state in the not too distant past. He's got history, and I think this worked more in his favor than his Washington outsider approach.
America wants change. There's no doubt about that, but I don't know if he is the right person to be focusing on change. Sure, it's the buzz word, but he is about as old school Republican as this race has to offer.
On a side note, Mitt referred to all three major Democrats tonight, and it appears he is staying away from annointing anyone there. This is a definite change in tone.
On another side note, Mitt just asked his audience three questions. Is Washington broken? Can it be fixed? And is this the team to do it? I would be squirming in my seat if I was part of his campaign. Candidates can't ask questions when they are on the stage, especially when pushing for big change. They need to be giving answers, and asking questions, even rhetorical ones gives of an unconscious message of doubt. That was a mistake, and he will need to stop that little trick if he wants to win.
The Republican Howard Dean?
It's mop-up time for everyone except Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee is doing his best right now to convince the country he is still in the race. He shouldn't have to do much convincing, as he is still in the race, but if he doesn't make a strong showing in the next few contests, he is going to have a all-or-nothing Super Tuesday on February 5.
Huckabee is in danger of becoming the Republican version of Howard Dean, minus the psychotic scream. If he ends up bowing out early, he is going to have to worry about having peaked too early. It's a problem in sports where a team ends up peaking a few weeks too early or the first round of playoffs. He needs to be in this to the end.
This might be problematic, as he didn't even come close to winning in a state where he should have put up some number despite strong competition from Romney and McCain.
For Huckabee to stay in this race, he is going to have to do something more than just campaign well. He is good in front of crowds, and he has a somewhat populist message, but he doesn't sound optimistic enough in my mind. He needs to fuel his populism into some positive momentum and focus on that instead of trying to simply keep up with the two men who finished ahead of him tonight.
Huckabee is in danger of becoming the Republican version of Howard Dean, minus the psychotic scream. If he ends up bowing out early, he is going to have to worry about having peaked too early. It's a problem in sports where a team ends up peaking a few weeks too early or the first round of playoffs. He needs to be in this to the end.
This might be problematic, as he didn't even come close to winning in a state where he should have put up some number despite strong competition from Romney and McCain.
For Huckabee to stay in this race, he is going to have to do something more than just campaign well. He is good in front of crowds, and he has a somewhat populist message, but he doesn't sound optimistic enough in my mind. He needs to fuel his populism into some positive momentum and focus on that instead of trying to simply keep up with the two men who finished ahead of him tonight.
Monday, January 14, 2008
And it's off to the races...
Tomorrow night is going to be interesting, but the results of the Michigan primary will not likely determine the outcome of the Republican nomination. The one exception might be if McCain trounces the rest of his opponents. After looking at the polls, I don't think that is going to happen. In fact, Mitt Romney may pull this off.
Michigan is a curious state when it comes to the Republican primary. It is the fourth state to choose delegates, and it tends to vote liberal. The reason the placement is important is because it can cement a candidates position if he, or she, has already won the first three states. But right now, three separate candidates have won three separate states. And while Michigan is big, it isn't big enough to sway the rest of the country.
On the surface, McCain has the best chance in this state. Michigan is a working class state with fairly liberal social leanings. McCain should mix with these people better than Romney. Just recently McCain has pulled a couple of points above Romney, so he definitely has the momentum. The problem is that we have already seen what can happen when another candidate is on the ropes and needs to energize his, or her, supporters.
While I think this race is going to be close between these two men, I expect Romney's supporters to come out in force and eek out a victory for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see McCain win though, and I think that the odds would be in his favor if Vegas had a line on this battle.
Huckabee should come in third again, and Ron Paul may come in a surprise fourth over Giuliani and Thompson. This would be a definite victory for him, but Giuliani is counting on the big states where he still has a lead to bring him back. Thompson will likely drop out of the race sometime soon. He doesn't have the money to stay in the race or the support. And while he showed some life in the last debate, I just don't think he has the will to keep up his campaign.
I will be watching closely to see who he throws his support behind. He will definitely not support the "liberal" Huckabee. I doubt he has much love for Rudy either. McCain and Romney have the best chance of earning his support, if he offers it to anyone. And if it really matters.
Michigan is a curious state when it comes to the Republican primary. It is the fourth state to choose delegates, and it tends to vote liberal. The reason the placement is important is because it can cement a candidates position if he, or she, has already won the first three states. But right now, three separate candidates have won three separate states. And while Michigan is big, it isn't big enough to sway the rest of the country.
On the surface, McCain has the best chance in this state. Michigan is a working class state with fairly liberal social leanings. McCain should mix with these people better than Romney. Just recently McCain has pulled a couple of points above Romney, so he definitely has the momentum. The problem is that we have already seen what can happen when another candidate is on the ropes and needs to energize his, or her, supporters.
While I think this race is going to be close between these two men, I expect Romney's supporters to come out in force and eek out a victory for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see McCain win though, and I think that the odds would be in his favor if Vegas had a line on this battle.
Huckabee should come in third again, and Ron Paul may come in a surprise fourth over Giuliani and Thompson. This would be a definite victory for him, but Giuliani is counting on the big states where he still has a lead to bring him back. Thompson will likely drop out of the race sometime soon. He doesn't have the money to stay in the race or the support. And while he showed some life in the last debate, I just don't think he has the will to keep up his campaign.
I will be watching closely to see who he throws his support behind. He will definitely not support the "liberal" Huckabee. I doubt he has much love for Rudy either. McCain and Romney have the best chance of earning his support, if he offers it to anyone. And if it really matters.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Candidate for change?
It seems like I harp on Hillary, and people around me know I don't care for her much. For a variety of reasons, this election season is coming down to change. We all want it, and I think there is a reason.
I'm fairly young, at least I like to tell people I am. So I might look at thing without a lot of perspective. However, the Clintons and Bushes have held the top executive position in the country for almost three-quarters of my life, and maybe that's what my dislike for Hillary comes down to.
After 20 years in charge, I want some change. It doesn't seem like there has been a lot of it over the past two decades, despite party switches. And four or eight more years of this reign just doesn't sound good to me.
I think this is an underlying part of what makes her campaign so complex. On one hand, America likes what they are familiar with. On the other, polls show the country says they want change. It's just hard to make that switch, which is why I think we saw her bounce back in New Hampshire. That state especially like to buck the national trend and is fiercely independent. Vote first or die? Seriously. While they don't want to just hand things over to Hillary, I think they were opposed to crowning Senator Obama. Maybe they, like me, just wanted to keep things interesting.
Either way, it will be interesting to see if America really wants change or ends up finding solace in familiarity.
I'm fairly young, at least I like to tell people I am. So I might look at thing without a lot of perspective. However, the Clintons and Bushes have held the top executive position in the country for almost three-quarters of my life, and maybe that's what my dislike for Hillary comes down to.
After 20 years in charge, I want some change. It doesn't seem like there has been a lot of it over the past two decades, despite party switches. And four or eight more years of this reign just doesn't sound good to me.
I think this is an underlying part of what makes her campaign so complex. On one hand, America likes what they are familiar with. On the other, polls show the country says they want change. It's just hard to make that switch, which is why I think we saw her bounce back in New Hampshire. That state especially like to buck the national trend and is fiercely independent. Vote first or die? Seriously. While they don't want to just hand things over to Hillary, I think they were opposed to crowning Senator Obama. Maybe they, like me, just wanted to keep things interesting.
Either way, it will be interesting to see if America really wants change or ends up finding solace in familiarity.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
A funny thing happened...
Nine days from now, the respected voters of South Carolina will head to the polls for their primary, and John McCain appears to have the lead if we can believe the polls any more. I'm kidding. I still have faith in them, despite the New Hampshire fiasco.
But his lead reminds me of another South Carolina primary that cost him the election when he ran agains President Bush. That was my first presidential campaign where I spent a bit of time on the front lines with the candidates.
The Saturday before election day, GW called in the big guns for some help. This came from his little brother in Florida, who flew up with a bunch of supporters from Florida to go door-to-door an pass out Florida oranges and spread the good news. As I wandered with them from house-to-house, I absent-mindedly picked up an orange and noticed the label. Sunkist. Grown in California. Nothing like a bit of honest-to-goodness West Coast liberal oranges to spread the George Bush love.
I thought it funny at least.
And if you're wondering, GW comes by his charming personality naturally. Those Bush boys know how to work a crowd, and more than that they know how to work an individual.
Oh, and as for the primary in South Carolina this year, I have a feeling that McCain just might redeem himself. I don't want to sound like someone jumping on the bandwagon because Romney and even Huckabee both have good chances here, but South Carolina usually likes the establishment candidates. And in this case, I think McCain fits the bill.
But his lead reminds me of another South Carolina primary that cost him the election when he ran agains President Bush. That was my first presidential campaign where I spent a bit of time on the front lines with the candidates.
The Saturday before election day, GW called in the big guns for some help. This came from his little brother in Florida, who flew up with a bunch of supporters from Florida to go door-to-door an pass out Florida oranges and spread the good news. As I wandered with them from house-to-house, I absent-mindedly picked up an orange and noticed the label. Sunkist. Grown in California. Nothing like a bit of honest-to-goodness West Coast liberal oranges to spread the George Bush love.
I thought it funny at least.
And if you're wondering, GW comes by his charming personality naturally. Those Bush boys know how to work a crowd, and more than that they know how to work an individual.
Oh, and as for the primary in South Carolina this year, I have a feeling that McCain just might redeem himself. I don't want to sound like someone jumping on the bandwagon because Romney and even Huckabee both have good chances here, but South Carolina usually likes the establishment candidates. And in this case, I think McCain fits the bill.
So you're sayin' there's a chance...
Multiple news outlets are reporting New York's mayor Michael Bloomberg is polling the country to see if he can run a viable campaign as a third party candidate. I would say this is pretty old news, but it is interesting to hear it finally coming out.
As I mentioned previously, I think the most likely scenario where he runs is if Hillary and Huckabee win the nominations. These two candidates are the polar opposites and open up the middle, which is what he would need to succeed.
Could he? I like his chances. Watching the first New Hampshire debates, I couldn't help but note the appalling lack of a centrist candidate, despite various attempts from the people on stage, especially on the Republican side. I think they have the most disparity among major candidates and could use a moderate.
I couldn't help but wonder what would happen if they could put up a candidate with Ron Paul's view on the war, Rudy Giuliani's exposure, Mike Huckabee's economics and John McCain's social views. I would hesitate to say Bloomberg really meets any of these criteria, but he is close enough that he just might make for a very interesting election season if he decided to go through with a campaign.
As I mentioned previously, I think the most likely scenario where he runs is if Hillary and Huckabee win the nominations. These two candidates are the polar opposites and open up the middle, which is what he would need to succeed.
Could he? I like his chances. Watching the first New Hampshire debates, I couldn't help but note the appalling lack of a centrist candidate, despite various attempts from the people on stage, especially on the Republican side. I think they have the most disparity among major candidates and could use a moderate.
I couldn't help but wonder what would happen if they could put up a candidate with Ron Paul's view on the war, Rudy Giuliani's exposure, Mike Huckabee's economics and John McCain's social views. I would hesitate to say Bloomberg really meets any of these criteria, but he is close enough that he just might make for a very interesting election season if he decided to go through with a campaign.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
The Day After...
We've all had a day to digest what happened last night, and if you are like me you are still just as confused as last night. What happened? And what does it mean?
Things were nice and clean on the Republican side. John McCain won just like he was supposed to. The Republican candidates smelled blood after Moneybags Mitt lost so badly in Iowa, and they pounced. The last two debates in New Hampshire saw a concentrated effort to defeat him. Mission accomplished. And that leaves the race almost wide open. Despite the bravado and a win in Wisconsin, Romney can no longer win this primary. That means Huckabee and McCain will be battling it out, and the Republican base will have to decide what is more important: domestic or foreign policy.
Michigan is going to be key. Huckabee is going to try to charm a struggling economy into voting for him and tout some populist themes. But McCain took 42 percent of the "poor" Republican vote in New Hampshire. Look for both of these candidates to focus on the economy here.
The Democrat primary is more confusing. I'm still not sure how Hillary won. I know the polls were trending toward her during the last day, but not like that. The whole thing has me asking a question. Are voters racist? On the surface, I would have to say no. Obama carried one of the whitest states in the country. And polls show America is more open to a black president than a woman president. I am personally bothered that we are even asking that kind of poll question. I am hopeful that Obama lost simply because his supporters got lazy.
Hillary and Obama will continue to slug it out while Edwards flounders in third. I personally think Edwards is the most electable Democrat, but he just doesn't carry the weight of the other two on the campaign trail. Nevada will be big for Obama, who needs to keep a Hillary bounce from happening. Obama is going to need to hit up the union vote here, and Edwards could end up playing a bit of a spoiler role. I have a feeling Hillary is going to pull this one out.
Things were nice and clean on the Republican side. John McCain won just like he was supposed to. The Republican candidates smelled blood after Moneybags Mitt lost so badly in Iowa, and they pounced. The last two debates in New Hampshire saw a concentrated effort to defeat him. Mission accomplished. And that leaves the race almost wide open. Despite the bravado and a win in Wisconsin, Romney can no longer win this primary. That means Huckabee and McCain will be battling it out, and the Republican base will have to decide what is more important: domestic or foreign policy.
Michigan is going to be key. Huckabee is going to try to charm a struggling economy into voting for him and tout some populist themes. But McCain took 42 percent of the "poor" Republican vote in New Hampshire. Look for both of these candidates to focus on the economy here.
The Democrat primary is more confusing. I'm still not sure how Hillary won. I know the polls were trending toward her during the last day, but not like that. The whole thing has me asking a question. Are voters racist? On the surface, I would have to say no. Obama carried one of the whitest states in the country. And polls show America is more open to a black president than a woman president. I am personally bothered that we are even asking that kind of poll question. I am hopeful that Obama lost simply because his supporters got lazy.
Hillary and Obama will continue to slug it out while Edwards flounders in third. I personally think Edwards is the most electable Democrat, but he just doesn't carry the weight of the other two on the campaign trail. Nevada will be big for Obama, who needs to keep a Hillary bounce from happening. Obama is going to need to hit up the union vote here, and Edwards could end up playing a bit of a spoiler role. I have a feeling Hillary is going to pull this one out.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
What would it take?
I know I just gave my ideal scenario a little while ago that would get Michael Bloomberg and Ron Paul involved in four-way run for president. Is that even possible? I think Ron Paul is more likely to run as an independent, but Bloomberg seems like he is still at least entertaining that idea despite his denials.
What would it take for him to run? First off, I don't think he would run if Obama wins the nomination. In this respect, Hillary's win tonight might start him thinking about things a bit more. I have a hard time believing he would step in the way of the first black person to win a major party's nomination. It just wouldn't look good. Perhaps more pragmatically, Bloomberg would have a more difficult time running against Obama than Hillary because they would both be running on principles of optimism and change.
The next question is whether Bloomberg would look at the Republican nominee before running. Of course he would. I think he would have a hard time justifying a run against McCain, who is a social moderate. But if Huckabee won the nomination, Bloomberg would have a wide open door. Everything I hear says Bloomberg's group has a specific set of criteria for running, and one of these pieces would be having two candidates at the opposite ends of the political spectrum so he could appeal to the middle. A race between Huckabee and Hillary would definitely meet this criteria.
If these two people end up winning, I think we just might see a Bloomberg emerge as a viable third party candidate. I know I would be pushing for it.
What would it take for him to run? First off, I don't think he would run if Obama wins the nomination. In this respect, Hillary's win tonight might start him thinking about things a bit more. I have a hard time believing he would step in the way of the first black person to win a major party's nomination. It just wouldn't look good. Perhaps more pragmatically, Bloomberg would have a more difficult time running against Obama than Hillary because they would both be running on principles of optimism and change.
The next question is whether Bloomberg would look at the Republican nominee before running. Of course he would. I think he would have a hard time justifying a run against McCain, who is a social moderate. But if Huckabee won the nomination, Bloomberg would have a wide open door. Everything I hear says Bloomberg's group has a specific set of criteria for running, and one of these pieces would be having two candidates at the opposite ends of the political spectrum so he could appeal to the middle. A race between Huckabee and Hillary would definitely meet this criteria.
If these two people end up winning, I think we just might see a Bloomberg emerge as a viable third party candidate. I know I would be pushing for it.
Let there be tears...
Did the tears work? Hillary is saying her thank yous to a state that loves women leaders. I think she won because of this and because her supporters knew she had to while Obama's supporters got lazy. Some might have even voted for McCain because they were so afraid of Huckabee winning the nomination and they figured they had a sure bet based on the polls.
Does anyone else find everything she says disingenuous? In the process, she found her own voice? That is what she just said, but I don't think I have ever seen anyone who knows less about herself. Hillary knows policy. She knows politics, but she doesn't know who she is.
And if the tears were authentic, then I am happy for her and pleased that she can not just feel emotion, but show it. But the fact is people are questioning whether the tears are put on. That in itself is a problem. We have become cynical after watching hours of election coverage, but are we really at the point of questioning tears? Apparently we are when they come from her.
I will be honest. I don't think she has the ability to win the Democrat nomination. And I know she can't win the general election. America will not vote for someone they question every move. The poll numbers tonight show the voters like Obama better, and I think that will win out in the end.
Does anyone else find everything she says disingenuous? In the process, she found her own voice? That is what she just said, but I don't think I have ever seen anyone who knows less about herself. Hillary knows policy. She knows politics, but she doesn't know who she is.
And if the tears were authentic, then I am happy for her and pleased that she can not just feel emotion, but show it. But the fact is people are questioning whether the tears are put on. That in itself is a problem. We have become cynical after watching hours of election coverage, but are we really at the point of questioning tears? Apparently we are when they come from her.
I will be honest. I don't think she has the ability to win the Democrat nomination. And I know she can't win the general election. America will not vote for someone they question every move. The poll numbers tonight show the voters like Obama better, and I think that will win out in the end.
Si se puede...
Yes we can.
Obama is saying it. I'm impressed. In Spanish, they say Si Se Puede, which would be loosely translated, yes we can. Cesar Chavez and Dolores Huerta came up with this slogan as they fought for the farmworkers rights in California.
Last Tuesday, Obama recalled Martin Luther King Jr. in his acceptance speech. Now he is calling on Cesar Chavez. Do you think he is just going through a list of social rights activists now? And can he pull it off?
He is a great speaker. I mean, seriously good. And I tend to think he can pull off borrowing from the great people who came before him. He is going to have to come up with something to back it up though. And more importantly, does this signal a theme in his campaign that he wants to be seen as someone who is a social rights activist? So much of this campaign is being fought around foreign policy ideas that I think it would be fun to see someone change the focus a bit.
Also, apparently I am on a theme song kick tonight, but Signed, Sealed, Delivered? Are you kidding? Couldn't someone on his campaign staff gone through an iPod to find something just a little bit more appropriate?
Obama is saying it. I'm impressed. In Spanish, they say Si Se Puede, which would be loosely translated, yes we can. Cesar Chavez and Dolores Huerta came up with this slogan as they fought for the farmworkers rights in California.
Last Tuesday, Obama recalled Martin Luther King Jr. in his acceptance speech. Now he is calling on Cesar Chavez. Do you think he is just going through a list of social rights activists now? And can he pull it off?
He is a great speaker. I mean, seriously good. And I tend to think he can pull off borrowing from the great people who came before him. He is going to have to come up with something to back it up though. And more importantly, does this signal a theme in his campaign that he wants to be seen as someone who is a social rights activist? So much of this campaign is being fought around foreign policy ideas that I think it would be fun to see someone change the focus a bit.
Also, apparently I am on a theme song kick tonight, but Signed, Sealed, Delivered? Are you kidding? Couldn't someone on his campaign staff gone through an iPod to find something just a little bit more appropriate?
Why I like this...
Would you like to know my ultimate political dream? Hillary wins the Democrat nomination. McCain wins the Republican nomination. Michael Bloomberg and Ron Paul decide to run as independents.
This scenario would blow up the collective mind of this country. It would mean that not only would a president be elected with less than a majority vote, but a president could be elected with less than 40 percent of the vote. What would we do with that?
Bloomberg would be a formidable candidate in this scenario. I dont know if he could win, but he certainly has the money and the name recognition to make a push. Let's give him 20 percent of the vote.
We would have to automatically give Hillary and McCain each 30 percent of the vote since they would be considered establishment candidates. If we give Ron Paul 10 percent, which is about what he is pulling from the primaries now (It would probably be much less), that would leave us with 10 percent left that would likely be split between Hillary or McCain, meaning the winner would probably win with less than 40 percent of the vote.
Could someone lead America after winning less than that? Of course, but there would be some problems. And maybe, just maybe, that would force the winning candidate to pay a little attention to the opposition. I doubt it, but I can dream.
This scenario would blow up the collective mind of this country. It would mean that not only would a president be elected with less than a majority vote, but a president could be elected with less than 40 percent of the vote. What would we do with that?
Bloomberg would be a formidable candidate in this scenario. I dont know if he could win, but he certainly has the money and the name recognition to make a push. Let's give him 20 percent of the vote.
We would have to automatically give Hillary and McCain each 30 percent of the vote since they would be considered establishment candidates. If we give Ron Paul 10 percent, which is about what he is pulling from the primaries now (It would probably be much less), that would leave us with 10 percent left that would likely be split between Hillary or McCain, meaning the winner would probably win with less than 40 percent of the vote.
Could someone lead America after winning less than that? Of course, but there would be some problems. And maybe, just maybe, that would force the winning candidate to pay a little attention to the opposition. I doubt it, but I can dream.
There she goes...
AP has just announced Hillary will win New Hampshire. I am shocked, and am trying to figure out how this happened.
The polls are good. They really, really are. Back in the day, it may have been more art than science, but those days are gone. The pollsters know what they are doing, and every one showed Obama with a substantial lead. So what does that mean? It means that likely Hillary supporters knew every single one had to make it to the polls or her campaign was over. This was probably helped by Obama supporters who got lazy based on the polls.
The other scenario is that John McCain pulled in a crazy amount on independents. New Hampshire is one of the biggest states for independents, and a loss for Obama means most of the independents decided to vote Republican and for McCain. If this is the case, it means he might be a viable national candidate. People have always suspected he has crossover appeal, and Sen. Joe Lieberman's support might be taken as a modicum of proof of this, though he isn't exactly part of the Democrat establishment.
If McCain is going to make more waves, he is going to have to find a way to speak to the Republican core. During the last election, he lost South Carolina and the election because he couldn't reach the base. He's not the world's best communicator, but he has foreign policy credentials that might transcend this problem.
Either way, his win means the primary season will remain interesting and keep three people involved. Giuliani hasn't won anything yet, but he still leads in national polls. I'm pulling for him in Nevada just to mix everything up a bit more.
The polls are good. They really, really are. Back in the day, it may have been more art than science, but those days are gone. The pollsters know what they are doing, and every one showed Obama with a substantial lead. So what does that mean? It means that likely Hillary supporters knew every single one had to make it to the polls or her campaign was over. This was probably helped by Obama supporters who got lazy based on the polls.
The other scenario is that John McCain pulled in a crazy amount on independents. New Hampshire is one of the biggest states for independents, and a loss for Obama means most of the independents decided to vote Republican and for McCain. If this is the case, it means he might be a viable national candidate. People have always suspected he has crossover appeal, and Sen. Joe Lieberman's support might be taken as a modicum of proof of this, though he isn't exactly part of the Democrat establishment.
If McCain is going to make more waves, he is going to have to find a way to speak to the Republican core. During the last election, he lost South Carolina and the election because he couldn't reach the base. He's not the world's best communicator, but he has foreign policy credentials that might transcend this problem.
Either way, his win means the primary season will remain interesting and keep three people involved. Giuliani hasn't won anything yet, but he still leads in national polls. I'm pulling for him in Nevada just to mix everything up a bit more.
This is our country?
Okay, maybe I'm being a bit snarky here, but John Edwards is really going to John Cougar Mellencamp for a theme song? And not even a good Cougar tune? A tune that is famous for being used in a truck commercial?
I like John Edwards. I think he is the most electable Democrat running for president, but for the love of all that is good and true, couldn't he have found something else? Anything else?
He is speaking right now in his usual eloquent self. I feel a bit bad for him. He is smooth, and he talks a good talk. But here he is, trying to put a good spin on coming in third again. His problem is that the good ol' USA has a hard time supporting losers, and he has lost.
His only hope now is for Clinton or Obama to drop out early, but looking at the early results, that is not likely. He says he is in the race, but he isn't. He's got 48 more states, but he will be lucky to win even one now.
I really think his history of losing in 2004 is the only reason he is in third place right now. I've spent a bit of time with him in person while he was in full campaign mode, and he has the gift. I won't call him Clintonesque, but he has the ability to inspire even people who aren't looking to be inspired.
America just can't stand losing, no matter what the country says about second chances. Take a look at Adlai Stevenson. I hope Edwards doesn't keep this up, though he is young enough that he could challenge the Stevenson legacy.
I like John Edwards. I think he is the most electable Democrat running for president, but for the love of all that is good and true, couldn't he have found something else? Anything else?
He is speaking right now in his usual eloquent self. I feel a bit bad for him. He is smooth, and he talks a good talk. But here he is, trying to put a good spin on coming in third again. His problem is that the good ol' USA has a hard time supporting losers, and he has lost.
His only hope now is for Clinton or Obama to drop out early, but looking at the early results, that is not likely. He says he is in the race, but he isn't. He's got 48 more states, but he will be lucky to win even one now.
I really think his history of losing in 2004 is the only reason he is in third place right now. I've spent a bit of time with him in person while he was in full campaign mode, and he has the gift. I won't call him Clintonesque, but he has the ability to inspire even people who aren't looking to be inspired.
America just can't stand losing, no matter what the country says about second chances. Take a look at Adlai Stevenson. I hope Edwards doesn't keep this up, though he is young enough that he could challenge the Stevenson legacy.
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